65% Surveyed Rather NOT Live in Orlando

If you read yesterday’s Sentinel, you would have found this headline: “National survey ranks Orlando 4th most popular city in U.S.”

Read the report and you find only 34% stated they would like to live in Orlando. You have to ask why the Sentinel is so happy with a report that also states 65%(1) of those surveyed would not like to live in Orlando.

Well, Orlando did finish 4th!

Or did it? In the “national survey” Orlando actually finished tied for fourth place with Tampa and some town out West named San Francisco. The report also states that “for statistically significant comparisons between cities, a margin of at least 6 percentage points is required.” That means the difference from #3 Seattle to #7 Phoenix is not “statistically significant.” You might want to alert the Sentinel.

Such a survey must have been Census exhausting. Were millions of people surveyed over a year? Actually, the Pew Research Center’s Social & Demographic Trends Project surveyed 2,260 adults in the continental United States. By phone. Over 16 days in October 2008. By phone.

Now, I’ll take the word of the Pew people that their survey was a “nationally representative sample.” But, seriously, they surveyed people on the phone. That can’t be a accurate cross section of the American people. Well, those Americans who don’t live in Alaska or Hawaii.

It gets better:

“Results for this survey are based on telephone interviews conducted with a nationally representative sample of 2,260 adults living in the continental United States. A combination of landline and cellular random digit dial (RDD) samples was used to represent all adults in the continental United States who have access to either a landline or cellular telephone. A total of 1,502 interviews were completed with respondents contacted by landline phone, and 758 from those contacted on their cell phone. The data are weighted to produce a final sample that is representative of the general population of adults in the continental United States.”

I’ll translate: “We called a bunch of numbers at random. We finally found 2,260 people so bored they had time to answer a boatload(2) of personal questions about their education, income, and if they’d like to live in Orlando or Tampa, etc.” (3)

Now, how does that survey sound? Wait, there’s more…

There are 30 cities on the list and, surprisingly, in the survey. Here’s the money question: “As I read through the following places, just tell me your first reaction: Would you want to live in this city or its surrounding metropolitan area or NOT want to live there.” (“Not” in all capitals was verbatim from the report.)

More surprisingly, every respondent wasn’t asked about every city. Yes, even the Pew people realized a list of 30 cities may cause some respondents to bail. So they split the cities in three groups of 10.

725 people were asked the question about New York City, Cleveland, Dallas, Minneapolis, Orlando, Portland, Sacramento, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, and San Diego.

763 people got to respond to Detroit, Houston, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, San Antonio, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Seattle, Tampa, and Washington.

772 people said yes or NOT to Atlanta, Baltimore, Boston, Cincinnati, Chicago, Denver, Kansas City, Miami, Riverside, and San Francisco.

Add Oakland and Milwaukee and you’d have all the USA-based Major League Baseball cities. Not surprisingly, Las Vegas and Portland have been touted as future homes for traveling MLB teams. But I digress.

Back to the survey…

The 34% who liked Orlando were from a group of 725 people who answered their phone and took a survey. That means 246.5 people would want to live in Orlando. Meanwhile, the 34% who liked Tampa were from the group of 763. That means 259.4 people favored Tampa. (4)

I guess I-4 bragging rights should therefore fall to Tampa.

Those are just some of the questions and comments I found while reading the report. Read the report and draw your own conclusions. (pdf)

(1) – The total didn’t add to 100% because 1% merely asked if they’d get free Disney tickets if they lived in Orlando. (This statement is not true.)

(2) – “boatload” – approximately 44

(3) – Not an actual translation.

(4) – In all fairness, since 772 people answered in the San Francisco group, that means the Golden Gate city finished 3rd with 262.5 people who favored SF.

photo credit: leshoward

photo credit: The Library of Virginia